trying to plan
August 27th, 2008How in the world can anyone make a reasonable decision based on this information from the WUnderground weather site?…
It babbles just like any presidential candidate…
The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs continue to be in good agreement on the 1-3 day track of Gustav, and we can be confident that Gustav will turn west and pass south of Cuba after leaving Haiti. The trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast and pulling Gustav northwest is expected to move off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force Gustav due west or slightly south of due west. After three days, there is more divergence in the models.The NOGAPS model no longer foresees landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan, and now takes Gustav to a final landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
The ECMWF is now the only model predicting a landfall in the Yucatan. This model predicts a second landfall in Texas.
The GFDL is a little slower than its previous run, but still forecasts a Category 3/4 hurricane hitting Louisiana on Sunday evening.
The UKMET prefers a Texas landfall.
The GFS is not much help–it dissipates Gustav.
The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. At present, there is no way to guess which location in the Gulf of Mexico is the most likely. Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty is correct only about 2/3 of the time–1/3 of the time, we can expect the storm’s position to be in error by more than what the cone of uncertainty suggests.
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I suspect we’re going to have to be watching and waiting for this one to make up its mind. Time to check the hurricane kit and keep the tanks filled.
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I just have a bad feeling, which is about as reliable as the forecasts. Bunch of frickin’ soothsayers, they are. But I’m thinking Pensacola or TX… I think NOLA will be spared. It’ll jog one way or the other. Get ready…
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